CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-08-23T02:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-08-23T02:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32987/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME visible to the west/southwest in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of the CME may be a filament and possible flare starting around 2024-08-23T01:00Z from AR13794 (N20W30) based on SDO/AIA 131 and 304. Dimming is also visible to the SW of the eruption location - best seen in SDO/AIA 211. | Arrival Signature: Interplanetary shock detected by ACE at L1 at 2024-08-27T07:33Z, characterized by sudden increase in B-total from 3nT to 8nT, shortly thereafter rising to 11.8nT. Simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 250 km/s to 325 km/s, increase in temperature from 15,000 Kelvin to 87,000 Kelvin, and increase in density from 2 p/cc to 16 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-27T07:33Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-27T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
SIDC URSIgram 2024-08-24 The Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in LASCO C2 data at 02:06 UTC on August 23 has been further analyzed. Although the bulk of the CME is directed to the west, an Earth-directed component may arrive at Earth on August 27Lead Time: 69.55 hour(s)
Difference: 7.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-08-24T10:00Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy